[astro-ph.IM] With only one confirmed example, namely the Earth, the abundance of life across the universe remains deeply uncertain, and local evidence about Earth’s particular circumstances can significantly shape our knowledge of life elsewhere.
Such extrapolation is difficult not only because of this sample size of one, but also due to observer selection effects discussed under the Anthropic Principle.
In this paper, we describe and apply a framework called Full Indexical Conditioning (FIC) for performing Bayesian inference in this situation. Inspired by, but distinct from, Full Non-Indexical Conditioning, FIC conditions on all evidence available to the reasoner while considering that this evidence could have been otherwise.
We address the reference class problem associated with such reasoning, demonstrating that substantive conclusions are unaffected by the choice of reference class provided it is sufficiently large.
We apply FIC to several problems in astrobiology, including the Doomsday argument, the early abiogenesis time, and our location around a G-type rather than M-type star, clarifying the foundations of these arguments.
We conclude that the early abiogenesis time does not rule out pessimistic possibilities for life’s abundance, and that while life around M stars may be uncommon, its temporal distribution could extend far into the future.
Ultimately, FIC offers a clear conceptual framework, grounded in straightforward probability theory, for tackling problems involving anthropic selection effects.
Brendon J. Brewer, Geraint F. Lewis, Jesse Goodman
Comments: 12 pages, 4 figures. To be submitted very shortly
Subjects: Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM); Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an); History and Philosophy of Physics (physics.hist-ph); Applications (stat.AP)
Cite as: arXiv:2610.22896 [astro-ph.IM] (or arXiv:2610.22896v1 [astro-ph.IM] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.22896
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Submission history
From: Brendon Brewer
[v1] Fri, 16 Oct 2026 03:54:51 UTC (518 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.22896
Astrobiology,
