Constraining the Lifespan of Intelligent Technological Civilization in the Galaxy

In this work, we explore constraints on the emergence and longevity of technologically intelligent civilizations in our Galaxy, considering the Fermi paradox.

We argue that under optimistic assumptions about the probability of life and intelligence emerging on Earth-like planets, the absence of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations imposes limits on their lifespan.

Our analysis suggests that if intelligent life is common, technological civilizations must be relatively short-lived, with lifetimes constrained to ≲5×103 years under our most optimistic scenario.

Considering electromagnetic communication, we note that our current light cone encompasses the entire Galactic history over the past ∼105 years, making the lack of detected signals particularly puzzling for long-lived civilizations. We emphasize that these results should be interpreted as upper bounds derived from the Fermi paradox, not as predictions of actual lifespans.

Sohrab Rahvar, Shahin Rouhani

Comments: 4 pages, 1 figure, accepted in MNRAS Letters
Subjects: Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA); Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:2602.22252 [astro-ph.GA] (or arXiv:2602.22252v1 [astro-ph.GA] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2602.22252
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Submission history
From: Sohrab Rahvar
[v1] Tue, 24 Feb 2026 20:57:21 UTC (90 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22252
Astrobiology