Several exoplanets have been discovered to date, and the next step is the search for extraterrestrial life.
However, it is difficult to estimate the number of life-bearing exoplanets because our only template is based on life on Earth. In this paper, a new approach is introduced to estimate the probability that life on Earth has survived from birth to the present based on its terrestrial extinction history. A histogram of the extinction intensity during the Phanerozoic Eon is modeled effectively with a log-normal function, supporting the idea that terrestrial extinction is a random multiplicative process.
Assuming that the fitted function is a probability density function of extinction intensity per unit time, the estimated survival probability of life on Earth is ~0.15 from the beginning of life to the present. This value can be a constraint on fi in the Drake equation, which contributes to estimating the number of life-bearing exoplanets.
Kohji Tsumura
Comments: 11 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, accepted by Scientific Reports
Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:2007.09904 [astro-ph.EP] (or arXiv:2007.09904v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)
Submission history
From: Kohji Tsumura
[v1] Mon, 20 Jul 2020 06:32:42 UTC (626 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.09904
Astrobiology
