Monte Carlo Estimation Of The Probability Of Causal Contacts Between Communicating Civilisations


The fraction of constrained causal contact nodes that never make contact (listening) as a function of τa and τs, for Dmax=1 kpc (left panel), Dmax=5 kpc (middle panel), and Dmax=10 kpc (right panel). The values of τa and τs are in the range 5·105 to 106 yr. The matrix is shown as obtained from the simulations, and the level curves are shown for the smoothed matri

In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilisations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes.

These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilisations.

We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilisations more significantly than with the number of active civilisations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilisation discovers the required communication technology.

Marcelo Lares, José Funes, Luciana Gramajo
Comments: 13 pages, submitted to the International Journal of Astrobiology
Subjects: Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph); Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM)
Cite as: arXiv:2007.03597 [physics.pop-ph] (or arXiv:2007.03597v1 [physics.pop-ph] for this version)
Submission history
From: Marcelo Lares
[v1] Tue, 7 Jul 2020 16:32:51 UTC (396 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.03597
Astrobiology, SETI

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